Are Your Rockets Ready?
Bitcoin breaks out of the correction. Wall Street is having an altcoin season. What is happening with Coinbase?
Hi,🙋
Welcome to the weekly CryptoFolks Newsletter. However, our launch procedures 🛫 require us to inform you not to consider this article as investment advice, as it represents solely our personal opinion. Always remember to manage your portfolios independently.💁♂️
Let’s kick off with a meme
Do you know that feeling when you’re waiting for something, like a vacation, checking the calendar day by day to see how much longer until that long-awaited trip… but every time it feels like it’s just a dream and those holidays may never actually come? If so, I’ve got something that will definitely lift your mood — and no, I’m not talking about the first days of summer 😉.
ut before I tell you what it is, let me ask you one thing — would you rather like this newsletter now, or after you finish reading it? 🤔
I’m talking about a major event we’ve both been waiting for — just like those long-anticipated holidays — namely: the big parabola, the rocket, the blast-off, the comeback, the green candle, or simply — Bitcoin price gains! 💥
That’s right — I mean that the waiting period for this “final parabola” is nearing its end, and what lies ahead is the most exciting phase of this market: the biggest profits, the banana zone, the arrival of tourists and retail, joy, and an increased public interest in cryptocurrencies.
How do we know it's right now? You’re about to answer that question yourself. So, if you’re ready, let’s dive in 🚀
Shakeout before the breakout
If you haven’t joined this Substack just yesterday, you probably know the Bitcoin scenario I’ve been focused on for over a month now. Bingo! It’s the ABC correction, which has now officially ended. Just as I wrote earlier — after the correction ends, a breakout to the upside follows — and that’s exactly what happened. Over the past week, Bitcoin rose nearly 10%, decisively ending the ABC and shifting the trend upward.
What you’re seeing here couldn’t have ended any other way — the last price drop to the 0.702 Fibonacci level (white line) and bounce upward is a perfect example of how Fibonacci retracements are a useful tool for predicting asset prices 📈.
Okay, Bitcoin is rebounding — but is that really such a big deal? One could argue we’re just back in sideways trend territory. Looking at the chart in black and white, it’s true — Bitcoin is hovering around 107k and may seem stuck again. But when you look more closely, through the lens of technical analysis, you don’t need to be a psychic to see what’s coming.
The 3-day pause in growth gave us a clear signal about the future of the big parabola — we’re building a bull flag. For those unfamiliar, it’s a classic bull market pattern, almost always followed by a strong upward trend.
What does a bull flag look like? Check the image below.
As you can see, it’s a very simple structure, hard to mess up, with a key feature being a temporary stagnation with a slight downward slope — hence the flag shape. And what comes next… we all know 💚
Let’s apply that to the current situation:
As controversial as it may sound, especially after all this hype about huge gains — what’s next is a brief correction 😉. But don’t worry — it will be shorter than CZ’s hair 😄 and is needed to complete the flag, just as I marked in the screenshot above. So over the next few days, don’t expect fireworks — just patience, like the oldest HODLers, waiting calmly for the inevitable.
Those who think ABCs, flags, etc., are just coincidences, should look at the repeating patterns from previous bull markets — and you’re about to see that too.
Let’s take the first example from the 2017 bull run, specifically late September to early October.
Take a look at this screenshot — nearly everything matches up perfectly with today. The only major difference over these 8 years is the more classic shape of the ABC in 2017 — but everything else is nearly identical. After the correction, we saw a strong rebound (yellow line), followed by a short downtrend to form the flag — then boom, the pump 🚀.
Another example — same pattern — can be seen in late June to early July, also from early 2017.
Again, the situation is nearly identical to now. The only real difference is again the shape of the ABC, but the sequence remains the same: correction → recovery → flag → pump. This pattern is very common — not just in Bitcoin or crypto, but in many asset classes. Why? Because it builds momentum for price increases — after all, it’s rare for an asset to go from $100 to $200 overnight with just a single green candle. While that can happen, it’s even rarer and less predictable than black swans.
“I still don’t believe in technical analysis” — you might say. Fine — assuming TA is like statistics (you know what), let’s look at how crypto compares to traditional U.S. markets.
It’s no secret — Bitcoin, along with most of crypto, follows the top U.S. indices like the S&P500, Nasdaq, or Russell 2000. Why does this matter? Because when traditional markets are crashing — our beloved digital coins suffer too. And when they rise — crypto usually follows.
Well, lucky for us — when we look at the performance of American indices, we see a whole lot of green 💹. Let’s break it down:
Top 500 U.S. companies: +3.4% and a new ATH above $6100
U.S. tech companies: +4.2% and also a new ATH
U.S. small & mid-sized businesses: +2.7%
The oldest U.S. index gains +3.8%
As you can see — all major U.S. indices are hitting new highs or rising fast, marked by beautiful green candles. And if Wall Street’s on fire… what’s next for crypto? I’d say that’s a very rhetorical question 😉
So you see — it’s hard not to be optimistic right now. The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, feels like a ticking time bomb ready to explode — and once it does, nothing will stop it.
That leaves me with just two questions — one more important than the other:
🚀 Is your rocket ready for launch?
👍 Did you like this post yet?
I am sick of them buying
Another week, same market, same people — they’re here again, buying everything in sight. Yep, it’s them. Wall Street.
They bought Bitcoin ETFs every single day last week — and that’s not even unusual. The buying spree has been ongoing since June 6, with only 5 red-flow days. If we zoom out even further — Bitcoin has been bought non-stop since April 14.
And Ethereum? Same story.
Speaking of Ethereum — check this out! The number of Ethereum transactions just hit a new all-time high — over 24 million!
Still not enough? Look at the capital inflows — the ETH ETF has seen 7 straight weeks of gains!
So yeah — huge buying pressure… yet the price still looks kind of… flat. We’re technically still in a correction phase, albeit the final one, before liftoff. Someone must be selling them all that BTC and ETH, but let’s not worry about that now.
If we do break out — this could be the very capital that kicks off the banana zone 🟢. At the moment, that capital is going only into ETF-accessible assets — i.e., Bitcoin and Ethereum, not altcoins via something like Coinbase, which still isn’t seeing much traction.
The first altcoin ETFs will probably be released later this year, maybe in the fall — which is when we’ll really start hearing alarm bells that the bull run is ending. Until then, if Coinbase isn’t a top 10 app, and Twitter isn’t flooded with crypto, this cycle could turn out to be a “bull run for institutions only”, without retail.
Wait… someone’s whispering something — it’s the market.
There’s a clear correlation between Coinbase stock ($COIN) and TOTAL3 (altcoins excluding BTC & ETH). No surprise there — Wall Street’s got its own “altcoin” on the exchange. But it looks like they didn’t invite us to altcoin season this time. $COIN stock 🚀, altcoins 🐌
Will altcoins follow Coinbase into orbit? Nobody knows. But if Bitcoin is about to break new ground, and Johnny Smith from Manhattan knows something, then we’re sitting on a ticking time bomb.
Right now, TA, demand, and market narrative are aligning perfectly. Once the public catches on, it’s game over. More companies are adding BTC to their treasuries, and it’s hard to find anything negative — except geopolitics. But does that even affect the U.S.? The stock market doesn’t think so.
Still not convinced?
Institutions are still longing Bitcoin, while retail is shorting — and the divergence is the largest in history.
Who’s wrong? What do you think? 🤨
We may really be not bullish enough.
But remember: the top comes on the most positive news, not the negative ones.
Till next time!
Jacob, Matthew