Like a Simulation - Bitcoin Situation Update

Bitcoin on a cusp of breaking out taking Ethereum with it! Don't be fooled for a forever lasting bull run.

Hi,🙋

Welcome to the weekly CryptoFolks Newsletter. However, our launch procedures 🛫 require us to inform you not to consider this article as investment advice, as it represents solely our personal opinion. Always remember to manage your portfolios independently.💁‍♂️

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Let’s kick off with a meme

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Alright, where are the gains that were supposed to be here but aren't? Do you feel cheated by the simulation, which once again laughs in your face and rolls back Bitcoin’s gains? 😤 Me too.

However, despite that, I’m not discouraged from continuing to analyze charts! If you’re also not giving up and playing until the final whistle, then join me for an update on the previous end-of-bull-market scenario for Bitcoin.

Yes, every day brings us closer to the top, and when we reach that top, it’s downhill from there—ushering in the bear market, which is worth preparing for and profiting from while others lose money. Want to know how to do that? Welcome to The Big Short series, where you’ll see how to play a safe short from start to finish of the bear market!
(Pssst. If James Wynn had read this, his trades would’ve had a 100% win rate 😉)

🔑 Key to your success while others fail →

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Alright, now that the future is secured, let’s go back to the present, to squeeze as much capital as we can for that epic short.

Hi, it’s Matthew here - welcome to the Bitcoin scenario update!

Like on rails!

It was supposed to be so beautiful and amazing, a flag was forming, and toward the end, we even saw the beginning of a pump, represented by a large blue candle (see screenshot). But as quickly as it started—it ended even faster 😅.

Instead of a breakout, we got another sideways trend, and our flag, at best, is now forming a smaller secondary flag—which is actually a positive.

If you’re having trouble spotting it—here it is:

Does this mean we should expect stagnation over the next few days followed by a breakout from the trend? Most likely yes. But will it definitely happen?

Well, looking at how the simulation keeps mocking us—it’s anyone’s guess. We might see another massive green candle tomorrow, sparking investor hope... only for it to be quickly extinguished 🔥.

Regardless of what happens in the short term, it doesn’t really affect what’s coming next: the parabola we’ve been waiting for. Why? Because we still need to grind through the range and wait patiently for some macro or geopolitical catalyst to really kick off the bull run 🚀.

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Yes, I know I keep repeating this “range,” but looking at the charts, it’s hard to ignore. Almost every time before the price shoots to the moon, we go through these boring periods, like the ones shown below 👇

Take the 2017 case, when after the ABC correction, the price had its first breakout, then two days of pause, and another pump. It seemed like the bull run had officially started... until another correction crushed those hopes.

Then the pattern repeated. The price returned to previous levels, pushed higher again, then entered another sideways trend. Only after the third breakout did it go parabolic and reach a new ATH.

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Now look at last year’s case, when Bitcoin jumped from 66k to 86k USD.

Same pattern. After the ABC correction that ended at 58k, we soared to 69k within days. An 11k increase made everyone think this was the real bull run. But what happened?

A “harmless” correction, totally understandable after such growth. Then, two days later, Bitcoin hit 73k—its previous ATH—only to drop to 66k within a week, spooking investors 😨 who were sure we were headed to the moon.

And then came a major global event—Donald Trump won the presidential election. That triggered chaos in the crypto world, and Bitcoin surged to 93k, nearly touching 100k.

As you know, the Trump victory was the catalyst I mentioned earlier. It ignited the entire crypto market, resulting in those violent gains 🔥.

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So as you can see, from the end of ABC to the start of the real parabola, we need time and space—the “range”—to develop.

And while it’s not a perfect pattern every time, there is one thing all these charts share: Elliott Waves 🌊

🔍 Let’s look at the first example:

From the moment the ABC correction ended until the final parabolic move, it was all made up of 5 Elliott Waves, with the first four building up the range, and the fifth delivering that sweet moonshot 🚀

Now the second example:

Same thing—four waves prepare the ground, and the fifth explodes upward. Quite impressive, wouldn’t you say?

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So, what about right now?

As I write this, Bitcoin is breaking 111k, and it looks like it’s finishing up wave 3 (upward). See for yourself:

So, what’s next? According to the pattern:
→ Pullback (wave 4)
→ Then the rocket to Mars (wave 5) that we’ve been waiting months for! 🪐

The million-dollar question is:

• How long will wave 4 take and how deep will the drop be?

Personally, I don’t think it’ll be dramatic. Sure, we don’t know what lies beyond the right side of the chart—but we can speculate, based on this white-marked range:

But what is that compared to the bigger picture? Zoom out, and you’ll see that wave 4 is just a formality:

Of course, I’m not saying we’ll reach 150k in one massive parabolic push—though it’s not impossible, just unlikely. According to Elliott Wave theory, as I wrote before in the gold bull market case (check the newsletter from 3 months ago here).

Almost every 5th wave contains its own 5 internal waves. I highly recommend learning this pattern—it’ll come in handy 📚.

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What should keep your spirits high about Crypto’s bright future?

• Traditional markets are still at ATH and preparing for a breakout 📈

• ETFs and retail investors are buying like crazy

• Market sentiment is shifting positive, as seen in ETH

• ETH price jumped today (Wednesday) to $2700, which is very promising ✨

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In summary:

We’re entering a boring phase, likely the final correction (wave 4) before the insane surge well beyond current Bitcoin ATHs.

These gains should also carry the top altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and with it... the memecoins 🐸.

Short-term = might be dull.
Long-term = everything is lining up.
Sooner or later, headlines will scream:
“Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs!”

Why will Bitcoin grow?

• Macro factors

• Geopolitical shifts

• Traditional markets influence

• Proven bull-market patterns from the past

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Important note: Everything you've read here is just my personal opinion, not investment advice 😏.

I wish you patience and calm like oldest hodler, Bitcoin at $1M, and most importantly - achieving your investment goals 💪