Narratives are Here to Make You a Fool!
Believing isn't the part of any real investors playbook. Bitcoin conference 2025 is here while greed is starting to bear its fruit.
Hi,🙋
Welcome to the weekly CryptoFolks Newsletter—a press review 📰of the crypto world and the current macroeconomic situation, where we explore what lies beyond the right side of the chart. However, our launch procedures 🛫 require us to inform you not to consider this article as investment advice, as it represents solely our personal opinion. Always remember to manage your portfolios independently.💁♂️
Meme of the Week
The past week
Descent from the peak, straight into the mouth of the bear 🐻. Just as quickly as Bitcoin rose, it dropped just as fast—so, we can probably assume the bull market is over, right??? But wait, which “end of the bull market” is this one 🤔? Exactly—it’s hard to tell, because there have been so many!
So, if you’re sitting in front of the chart right now thinking it’s over and maybe buying Bitcoin at $111k wasn’t such a great idea after all—relax. THIS IS NOT THE END. Quite the opposite—it’s just the beginning! 💥
Still, the fact remains: if there’s anyone here who entered the market at such a high price, they probably won’t pull a 5x anymore… but they won’t leave with a loss either, as long as they can keep their nerves in check, because… It’s just a correction 😂.
No matter how cliché that sounds—it’s the truth, and that’s the current state of the crypto market. So if you want to learn more about why “It’s just a correction”, sit back and start reading!
Oh, and by the way—if you enjoy my newsletters, leave a sub 👍—that way, I know someone is actually reading this, and my work is more useful than memecoins 😉.
Let's Start with Crypto Market Capitalization
One day you're up, the next you're down—that's what you could say by looking at the total market capitalization chart for the crypto market over the past week. Recently it was all gains and green candles (well, blue in our case), but now it's red everywhere—as if blood was spilling. (Or in our case, orange, as if someone spilled orange juice 😅).
Over the past 7 days, the crypto market dropped over 5%, and about $160 billion evaporated from it! So if you were looking for a reason why Bitcoin is falling, here’s your answer.
But it's nothing we haven’t seen before—this is a typical post-growth correction, so no need to panic, because “don’t worry—it’ll bounce back.”
Just keep in mind that this “soon” might take longer than it takes for an inexperienced retail investor to hit “sell” on their Bitcoin.
If you've read the previous two newsletters (hopefully you're up to date—if not, it’s time to catch up fast unless you want others to pass you by), then you know we’re facing a three-letter correction. More on that in a moment.
What About Altcoins?
If the entire market drops by X%, alts take almost double the hit. Is that a pattern? 🤔
Of course, we’re talking about alts outside the top 10, aka the most volatile part of the market. In the past week, they’ve dropped 9.5%, bringing their total value to $242.4 billion.
But if we zoom out on the chart, we’ll see that alts have almost returned to the level from which they had a solid rally just 3 weeks ago—you can see that in the next screenshot.
That’s just how it goes in our beautiful crypto universe 🌌—inexperienced investors rush into alts, hoping to make a magical 1000x, only to watch their portfolios bleed.
But take it easy. If you’re still waiting for altcoin season—it’s not over.
As I said at the beginning—it’s just a correction.
The only thing left for you to do is arm yourself with more patience than the amount of BTC Satoshi Nakamoto owns 🧘♂️.
So, How Are the Individual Projects Doing?
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is doing fine. Sure, for many it doesn’t seem that way—why? Simple: they’re not reading this newsletter that you are reading right now 😎.
They don’t realize this “drop” is part of a bigger plan. But you—armed with this advanced knowledge—are leaving the others behind.
Back to Bitcoin—it’s down only 4.25% over the last week, which is a solid result, considering the whole market lost 5% in the same time. That’s why I say: things are fine here.
On the other hand, if you just entered the market and bought BTC at $111k, and now you see it at $104k, you might think the sky is falling.
But anyone who's been in this market for a while knows these kinds of corrections are normal.
And anyone who understands how Bitcoin works knows: it doesn’t matter when you buy it—in the long run, you’ll come out ahead 💡.
The issue is, most investors come here with no strategy, thinking only about getting rich quick. That’s not investing—it’s gambling 🃏.
Alright, we know Bitcoin dropped 4.25%, and it's now at $104k. What next??
Next up is the ABC correction.
That’s right—nothing has changed in the last two weeks, and this scenario is still in play.
The latest drop was the start of this correction—the letter A. Take a look:
As you can see, that’s one-third of the formation, and the next move should be a small bounce up, likely back to around $107k, where price previously stalled.
But how high that bounce goes isn’t really important, because after that comes the second drop, which should be bigger than the current one.
The other reason the height of the bounce doesn’t matter is that the lowest we should go is the magical 0.702 Fibonacci level, pointing to around $98k–$100k (see screen below).
So yes, we might still see a five-digit Bitcoin before the breakout point that will kick off the FOMO, YOLO, and HYPE in the mainstream—just like every cycle 🤯.
Which point is that? Look below at the scenario from last week, where I mapped it out:
Sure, I didn’t draw the ABC structure with surgical precision (the price levels are a bit off), but everything checks out.
After we hit a local bottom, we’ll see a bounce and a “boring phase”—a sideways trend—followed by the growth we all long for.
Now take a look at the current situation:
Not much has changed—we’ve completed the first part of the ABC correction, and the rest is simple: after the local bottom and some consolidation, the train leaves the station, and the next stop is Mars 🚀.
The arrow can’t even fit in the frame—that’s how big the move will be 😄.
Jokes aside—as I wrote earlier—those who bought BTC at $111k won’t make 5x, but they also won’t walk away with losses, because this isn’t the end of the bull market. In fact, the best part is still ahead 🔥.
I’m not going to say Bitcoin is going to $300k, $500k, because I’m a realist.
But in my humble opinion, the bull market will end around $149k–$153k.
Ethereum
Incredible! Ethereum is still dropping less than Bitcoin — does this mean we're witnessing the birth of a new king of crypto? 🤣 Over the past week, ETH has lost only 2.5% and is still holding firmly in a sideways trend (which you can see below), currently valued at $2400.
XRP
Another week, another drop for XRP, this time -9%. The past 3 weeks haven’t been too kind for Ripple Labs’ project, as we've seen drops of similar size during this period. As a result, XRP's price has returned to its starting point, which is the level from before the breakout and wild rally 3 weeks ago. That level is $2.00 – $2.10, while the current price sits at $2.13.
So does this mean it's the end of the bull run for XRP? Absolutely not! Sure, it might take a while to get back to higher levels and attack the top again, but that doesn’t mean further growth won’t happen. In my opinion, the real end of XRP's bull run will only come when its price approaches a double-digit value without a decimal point 😉.
What’s going on with the traditionals?
S&P 500
As you can see from the image, everything looks just fine — the S&P 500 rose by nearly 2%, and its valuation is approaching the $6000 mark again! However, it hasn’t broken through that barrier just yet — maybe it will this week? 🙃 The week ultimately closed in positive territory, with the current price sitting at $5,911.68.
Nasdaq 100
Everything under control on the Nasdaq as well — slow and steady, as the index recovers from a local bottom. Over the last week, the valuation of the tech companies index increased by over 2%, now sitting at $21,340.99.
Russell 2000
Slow as a snail, but at least it's moving forward — that’s how we can summarize the past week for the index of small and mid-sized U.S. companies. Last week, the valuation went up by 0.5%, currently sitting at $2,060.4.
Dow Jones
Over the last week, the Dow Jones gained 1.6%, bringing its current valuation to $42,270.07.
Let’s check if the news is saying anything about crypto!
25,000 Bitcoiners in one place!
The largest Bitcoin conference in history — Bitcoin 2025 — recently wrapped up in Las Vegas, gathering over 25,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts from all over the world. It was 3 days of intense discussions and presentations, showing that Bitcoin is not just a digital currency, but a massive community determined to further develop this technology.
The keyword of the conference? "Freedom" — both financial and individual — emphasizing Bitcoin's potential to protect against excessive control and surveillance by banks and governments 🛡️.
One of the most talked-about moments was the speech by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, who openly expressed support for crypto and called for favorable regulations. It’s a clear sign that Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly relevant political issue. Another highlight was the appearance of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, recently pardoned by President Trump, symbolizing the fight for freedom and decentralization.
The event was packed with talks on integrating Bitcoin into traditional finance. Giants like Block (formerly Square) showcased real-time payments via the Lightning Network, which could significantly boost mainstream adoption. Topics around BTCfi and Layer 2 solutions were also discussed — these are aiming to expand Bitcoin's utility beyond its base layer. As always, Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy gave his unwaveringly optimistic view of Bitcoin as a key component of corporate strategy 🚀.
If you’re going to lose — lose it all!
Remember James Wynn, the well-known trader who once swore he’d never touch futures trading again? Well… he’s back — and with a bang! Wynn went all in, betting $50 million on Bitcoin’s rise. Can you guess how that ended? Exactly — his return to the "casino" was very short-lived, as he was quickly liquidated 💥. Think we’ll see more headlines like this again?
When will interest rates go down?
It’s no secret that Donald Trump wants to lower interest rates to help stimulate the U.S. economy, but lately, he seems to be running out of patience. On Thursday, Trump met with Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, for the first time since January. During the meeting, Trump intensified pressure on Powell to cut interest rates in the U.S.
The media widely covered the story, and now everyone’s asking the same question: Will the next FOMC meeting bring lower rates? 📉
How’s market sentiment in these “uncertain” times?
After the recent Bitcoin dip to 104k, investor sentiment has slightly shifted. Just a week ago, some were popping champagne bottles, and now they’re trying to close them back up. Looking at the screenshot, you can see sentiment has dropped to 50, which means a neutral level — not bad, not great, just OK.
On one hand, that makes sense — Bitcoin recently hit new all-time highs, which doesn’t happen often, and now we’re down 5%, heading toward 99k again. So, for everyone who bought at the top, this week might feel rough, possibly sparking panic 😬.
On the other hand, this is not a major correction, and it’s perfectly normal after hitting a new ATH. So, for investors who’ve been here for a while, this is no surprise.
When you compare both mindsets, it’s no wonder that market sentiment is mixed. But by now, you already know there’s nothing to worry about because...
“It’s just a correction.” 😉
Macro Matters!
Ongoing Issues with Systemic Debt
The Bank of Japan is contemplating a shift from issuing long-term debt to focusing more on short-term bonds. Why such considerations? To reduce interest rates, as Japan stands as one of the world's most indebted economies, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 260%. For them, high bond yields pose serious repayment challenges and potential bankruptcy risks.
This scenario exemplifies the pitfalls of fiat money, which can be printed in unlimited quantities, leading to massive debt accumulation—just like Japan. There's no turning back from this situation (and the current solution is more printing 😅). In a hard money system (e.g., gold standard or a future Bitcoin standard), such circumstances wouldn't arise—the currency supply is limited not by a central bank but by physical constraints.
PCE Inflation
For April, it was weak (0.1% m/m), aligning with expectations based on previously released CPI and PPI data, but the details reveal intriguing developments. Notably, there was a 12 basis point drag on core PCE inflation in April due to portfolio management fees, which are closely tied to market fluctuations.
Excluding the impact of volatile portfolio fees, PCE inflation would have been twice as strong in April, approximately 0.2%. It might not seem like much, but it does slightly alter the picture.
EU - USA Tensions
It appears the EU continues to play the tough negotiator with tariffs, attempting to outmaneuver Trump, but they may have overplayed their hand. He proposed a 50% tariff on EU products to be implemented by June 1. In response, a phone conversation occurred between Ursula von der Leyen and the US President, resulting in a negotiated "postponement" of these tariffs until July 9—likely hoping to reach an agreement by then.
Challenges with China
Allegedly, China violated the rules of trade talks and negotiations—according to US media reports.
Previously, there was optimism about reaching an agreement, allowing investors to sleep peacefully—life is unpredictable.
For crypto, an agreement with China is positive news, and that's what we're hoping for. The absence of such an agreement and the continuation of the trade war isn't problematic for us, but it does pose issues for the US economy.
Whether we like it or not, Americans largely drive the cryptocurrency market—the domino effect could lead to capital being withdrawn from crypto during economic troubles, and that's something we want to avoid.
US Court Rulings on Tariffs
The US Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority by imposing additional tariffs and ordered their immediate suspension. However, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington did not provide a rationale for its decision but instructed the plaintiffs to respond by June 5, and the administration by June 9. On Thursday, the federal appellate court reinstated the tariffs imposed by President Trump. What's going on here?
The Federal Court of International Trade invalidated some of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the so-called Liberation Day. It was determined that the president unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, and the tariffs imposed under this act—on countries like China, Canada, and Mexico—are illegal. The court not only invalidated most of the tariffs but also prohibited their reintroduction or modification in the future. A peculiar political maneuver.
Bears Fighting Hard
Since the new All-Time High (ATH) in the market, we've seen massive selling volumes, yet the price hasn't reacted significantly. Bitcoin still trades above $100k.
Divergence Between Major Players and Smaller Investors
The gap between big players and smaller investors has never been wider. Either, for the first time in history, smaller investors have caught the short, or after these few percentage point drops, where sentiment is extremely negative, the rocket will launch again. Institutions usually get it right.
Wall Street's Frenzy
Alright, two out of four days, they sold Bitcoins—the first such occurrence in a month.
But what does it matter if they're buying ETH like crazy?
They are unstoppable, and their FOMO is in full swing while we're sitting on Twitter wondering where the retail investors are. Right here—good thing we bought ETH before them at $1600.
Fact-Checking Narratives
Numero uno
Now, let's translate this into our terms. $7 trillion placed in US money market funds is like a massive savings account where investors park cash for safety, earning about 4.5% interest. These funds invest in low-risk assets like Treasury bills.
Some believe this cash could flow into the stock market (or even further into cryptocurrencies) if interest rates drop or the economic situation improves, potentially boosting markets.
However, most experts argue that this money is more likely to stay put or move into bonds, as investors remain cautious due to economic uncertainty.
For stocks to attract a significant influx of capital, interest rates would need to fall sharply, and investor confidence would need to rise substantially—which isn't happening yet. It's a waiting game, and bonds currently seem like the safer bet.
Ah Yes, Everyone Wants a BMW M2, But Wait, That's Not the M2 We're Talking About
It seems we'll be discussing this until ETH reaches $10k. This correlation arises because this "M2 liquidity" is equated to the dollar, meaning that when the dollar weakens, it grows = markets rise, including
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