Things Are Finally Moving!
Wheels are turning, crowd is running, gears rotating. It is time to watch out!
Hi,🙋
Welcome to the weekly CryptoFolks Newsletter. However, our launch procedures 🛫 require us to inform you not to consider this article as investment advice, as it represents solely our personal opinion. Always remember to manage your portfolios independently.💁♂️
Let’s kick off with a meme
During a bull market, when euphoria hits, things usually start moving quickly.
We see positive news, and readers start believing everything is still going in the right direction — and there’s just no way prices could drop... right?
So why does Elon Musk suddenly remember Bitcoin uses too much electricity right at the top?
Why do negative headlines suddenly flood the space, triggering a bear market that lasts an entire year until the bottom?
This time is no different.
Right now, we’re still at the beginning of the end — Bitcoin is rising, and we’re surrounded by positive news, like this one: TRON has become a company listed on NASDAQ 📈.
Justin Sun, the same person who was accused by the SEC of issuing unregistered securities and market manipulation, rang the bell on Thursday, marking TRON Inc’s official public debut.
There’s more — not long ago we saw Circle make its debut, and that was a massive success.
But this isn't about which project will perform better.
It’s about the market sentiment and investor emotions — because emotions drive this market more than anything else.
Reason and cool calculation are traits of those who have already made their profits and are preparing to exit — not those who are buying.
And when emotions take over the wheel, it’s usually time to act in the opposite direction.
We saw this all over social media as Bitcoin hit a new ATH above $120k 🚀.
Even though we were away, this news still reached us, and we could feel the emotional wave flowing with it.
Yet, this isn't reflected in Google search volume for "Bitcoin."
Same with views on my favorite crypto YouTube channels — still flat.
Because the retail crowd is becoming institutional — thanks to ETFs, Bitcoin has done a 7x from the bottom, but on-chain data doesn’t show strong retail participation, which is quite puzzling.
Let’s be honest — we’re still retail due to the capital we’re playing with, and there’s a lot of us here.
Because of ETFs and large players buying Bitcoin in stealth, we don’t show up in on-chain metrics, and the buses full of new retail investors haven’t even arrived yet. 🚌
On Twitter, we constantly see reports of old whales realizing profits worth hundreds of millions of dollars — it’s really happening, and ancient Bitcoins are moving on the blockchain again.
The truth is, John Smiths are buying Bitcoin through ETFs every day — it couldn’t get more bullish than this.
That’s why retail data looks like it does.
Normally, Johnny Smith would have to buy Bitcoin directly and maybe transfer it to his wallet — then he'd count as retail in on-chain analysis.
Now, he just buys an ETF on an exchange, and we’re all excited because iNsTiTuTiOnS aRe HeRe 🙃, not realizing that the bull market is playing out just like it did 4 years ago, 8 years ago, and 12 years ago.
Ethereum has also entered the game — a coin that was recently a bit of a joke has now made incredible returns.
Since April 7th, Ethereum has seen a 180% increase, while Bitcoin only 65% — and no one seems to notice 😅.
But they should — because that’s real capital rotation deeper into the market.
Bitcoin might rise to $150k, but to me, that won’t matter for two reasons:
I already sold my Bitcoin and now only hold Ethereum
Ethereum will grow even more.
And Ethereum will pull all projects built on its tech along with it — dragging the rest of the market onto the same train 🚂.
Altcoin season will pass us by before we even notice.
Right now, Ethereum and altcoins make up 83% of volume on futures markets — the highest in 2.5 years.
Meanwhile, the amount of Ethereum held on exchanges, like Bitcoin, is at record lows.
Queues are forming on the Ethereum network — for staking entries and exits.
John Smiths on Wall Street want Ethereum too — they keep buying more, just like corporations with negative earnings, like $SBET, trying to be the MicroStrategy of Ethereum 🤖
And we could go on like this till the end of next week... but you get the point.
This has all already happened — don’t treat it as a buy signal.
Everyone knows about it by now — including you. It’s priced in.
I’m showing you this data because it’s a great indicator of what’s happening outside the Bitcoin narrative.
And that’s where our attention should go — bull markets end with capital rotating into small projects, right before a massive sell-off begins.
Macro is still giving us time — tariffs are being delayed, fake progress in negotiations is being announced, and of course, we’re approaching interest rate cuts...
Let’s just hope it’s not too late, when everything’s already falling apart.
This isn’t the end — but we’re close. On Monday, we’ll take a look from a technical analysis perspective.
Cheers, Jacob
In steaf of asking google about bitcoin they are asking chatgpt and orher ai’s so that should be calculated in the monitoring of btc chatter,…